Since September 23rd changes to visa processing priorities, there have been dozens of articles trying to put some sort of context to what has happened and what may happen next! There is no doubt that, particularly for existing applicants, these changes are frustrating and lead to varying levels of uncertainty as to what will come next. Many of the articles that I have read have been written with an element of “spin” to try and put as positive a light on the situation as possible. One could speculate as to the motivation behind this but that is not what this article is designed to do.
What we hope to achieve with this article is to try and provide some perspective on the current situation and also some, what we believe is, sound advice for those who are not yet in the process and wondering whether they should bother at all.
It seems to me that the first consideration to be made is to ask yourselves again “why did I want to emigrate in the first place?” The answer to that question will differ with each individual and family that you ask. But you can be fairly sure that the top half a dozen or so responses will be: better lifestyle, better climate, better employment opportunities, better education for my kids, repatriate with family, improved quality of life, better future prospects for my kids, less crowded population. These are the most common reasons why people wish to emigrate to Australia. Irrespective of how long the government make you wait for your visas, when you get them none of these things above will have gone away….. so all the same reasons are still valid, and therefore none of the things that you wanted from the life change have gone away, right?
You may feel that at present DIAC are just “dangling you on a string” so to speak, and you would be justified in thinking that way. Why should they exercise such influence over your lives and what gives them that right? Basically we know that one of the main influencing factors has been global events of the last 12-15 months and how they have impacted on employment markets globally. We believe that one thing to keep in mind is that no matter how much you feel that DIAC are messing you around at present, you should take heart from the fact that they cannot make your application “go away”. They can stall processing times, apply the brakes on certain occupations, they can even change all the existing legislation for skills migration. However in all of that they are still required, by law, to process your existing application under the migration regulations that were in force when your visa application was lodged. No ifs, ands or buts about that fact.
DIAC was taken to task in the Australian federal courts for failing applications that were lodged with MODL occupations that had been removed before the application was decided. They were defeated in the courts and subsequently amended the regulations to recognise the fact that they had no legal standing to apply such decisions retrospectively. The main point being that your interests in wanting to come to Australia are protected by virtue of the fact that you have lodged an application.
Since 1 January 2009, DIAC have changed their processing priorities 3 times!! Factors that, in part, brought about these changes were due to the treasury department forecasting Australia to go into recession during 2009, the labour ministry forecast that unemployment would grow and reach over 8% by mid 2010, that the mining (Australia’s biggest export earner) industry would be decimated for at least 2 years and that economic growth for 2009 would fall to -.5%. Well the experts were a little off the mark, Australia totally avoided recession, unemployment figures have been revised to below 6% (the jobs market is already in growth) the mining industries are back on track to pre crisis levels of production and the economy is now forecast to grow by 1.5% for 2009. Australia will be the only western economy to show growth for 2009. Already we are seeing and hearing articles from industry challenging the government not to allow the skills shortages of the past decade to be repeated.
What does all this mean to you, you may ask? Well very simply put it means that the actions of DIAC over the first 9 months of the year would probably have been based around a number of predictions that have proven to be inaccurate. Also next year is an election year for Australia and the government will want as clean a record as possible going into an election. Having industry screaming skills shortages at a time of potential economic growth and return to national prosperity is not an issue that the government would want to hand to the opposition as an electoral issue to beat them over the head with. As a thinking person this would suggest that there is potential for DIAC to revise processing policy again in light of changes in forecasts for the immediate economic future and a looming election. There is obviously no guarantee in all of that but the facts point to a loosening of existing policy rather than any further tightening of it. A couple of other factors that may also influence in favour of relaxing processing policy are:
The state/territory governments have lists of occupations that they deem to be in short supply and on that basis they provide state sponsorship to selected candidates in those occupations. Those lists are based on existing shortages, not shortages forecast for 3 years ahead. It is clear that the DIAC changes from September were taken without any consultation with the states and one would assume that there will be representations from the states to put pressure on the federal government to reinstate the pre 23 September priority for state sponsored applications.
The other factor is that, like most western countries, Australia has an ageing population. The cusp of the baby boomers is now rapidly approaching retirement age. This alone will leave massive skills gaps in the workforce for a decade to come. No matter how much emphasis Australia puts on “training from within” this will never compensate for the loss of skills at the retirement end of the workforce. Given that Australia now also competes internationally for skilled workers (it is a recognized fact that eventually all western economies, albeit slower than Australia, will recover and compete for highly skilled workers), there is no doubt that Australia’s future prosperity will be tied to a functional skilled migration program for decades to come. In other words the demand for overseas migrants, irrespective of how the skilled migration methodology may change, will remain strong well into the future as will all the opportunities that this situation presents.
It is fair to say that each of the above factors, in isolation, may not mean a whole lot. However putting all the factors together would probably make most people think that the prospects of further changes to processing priorities would not be unexpected and would be far more likely to work in favour of the existing applicant than against them…..
The final thing to say in all of this is that if you are an existing applicant and the above just does not make you feel any better about the situation at all, the other option for you right now is to seek an offer of employment from an Australian employer. By gaining an offer of employment and with minimal additional requirements you could have your visas in a matter of months.
And now a word or two for all who are still to take the plunge and get the application process started. I am sure that many would be “sitting on the fringe” waiting to see what develops with regard to future processing priority. Given what is ahead in the future of Australian skilled migration, our advice to you would be “do not be distracted by matters concerning processing priorities.”
In 2010 there will be major changes to the methodology of how the skilled migration program will operate into the future. It is now 10+ years since the last major review and as per the last time, the changes are likely to be sweeping. DIAC have already released 2 stakeholder discussion papers that outline the extent of the existing review in to the MODL and how it operates, the whole points testing methodology and what will best satisfy Australia’s skilled migration needs into the future. The terms of reference cover every aspect of the skilled migration process, nothing has been left out!!
For all those who are interested in migration to Australia and have not started the process yet, this is the biggest issue for you to consider. This review and the subsequent outcomes have the potential and undoubtedly will have a huge impact on the ability of many “would be” applicants to meet the new requirements. The only way to guarantee that these changes will not impact on you is to have your application lodged before they are implemented. When considering this fact it is also important to remember that before you can lodge a valid skills visa application you must have completed a full skills assessment process and on average this can take anywhere between 12 - 20 weeks depending on the particular assessing authority that you are dealing with. Don’t get caught out by trying to “sit on the fence” for too long. I have been working in this industry now for in excess of 10 years and if I have learned anything it is that the saying “he who hesitates is lost” is more applicable in this industry than any other saying that I know!
